No longer the kiss of death

IN 2014 commodity prices tumbled. Many economists feared the worst for Africa. For decades the continent has been hopelessly dependent on commodities to power economic growth. When prices crashed, economies would go into tailspin. This time around, though, things seem different. The continent is holding up well.

The map above looks at how forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for African growth in 2015-16 have changed in the past year. Compared to what they were predicting in April 2014, the IMF now expects economic growth to fall in most African economies. For instance, the IMF now expects Nigeria to grow by 10% over the next two years, whereas in April 2014 it had predicted growth of 14%. Thus growth expectations have fallen by 4 percentage points, as the map’s colouring shows.

Some countries, especially those that are still very dependent on commodities, have seen bigger downgrades. But overall the situation is positive. Only two economies, Sierra Leone (a commodity-dependent economy which has also been hit by Ebola) and Equatorial Guinea (an oil-soaked kleptocracy), will see their…

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No longer the kiss of death